Lme copper cathode price12/19/2023 ![]() ![]() With prior studies relying on top–down material flow analyses limited to China and primarily addressing potential scrap availability changes, a significant research gap remains in understanding global supply chain reactions stemming from the solid waste import ban, the resulting environmental impacts, and mechanisms for maximizing environmental benefits in China and globally. explicitly account for changes in scrap imports 20– 23. Several authors have shown that China’s domestic secondary copper supply is insufficient to meet its increasing metals demand, where Zeng et al., Wang et al., and Dong et al. Studies to date have emphasized the ban’s impact on plastic waste streams, primarily addressing geographical redistribution, increased landfilling, and environmental impacts 8, 12, 18, 19. Chinese companies facing consequent scrap supply shortages have reinvested in recycling facilities throughout Southeast Asia, Australia, and the United States 13– 15, indicating a redistribution of scrap processing environmental impacts 16, 17. While much of this legislation has garnered broad international support and improved local health outcomes 9, 10, China’s Green Fence (2013) and National Sword (2017) policies, which restrict nearly all solid waste imports, have also caused disruption across a variety of supply chains and led to increased landfilling and buildup of recyclables in high-income, waste-exporting countries 8, 9, 11, 12. ![]() In an effort to address air pollution and limit soil and water toxicity while maintaining economic progress, China has implemented resource efficiency policies centering the circular economy as a national development strategy 7, 8. These conflicting issues necessitate an integrated assessment of the copper material system and further emphasize the need for recycling and other resource efficiency principles in this supply chain 6. These regions are also expected to experience the most intense effects of climate change 4, and copper resources in particular are concentrated in areas of high water scarcity risk 5. At the same time, copper ore grades continue to decline and extraction operations are increasingly concentrated in low-income regions with decreased enforcement of best practices 2, 3. The transition toward a zero-carbon society is coupled with increasing electrification, prompting projections that demand for copper, the third most-consumed metal, will increase by >300% and consume ∼2.5% of the world’s energy by 2050, with greater increases under more equitable global development scenarios 1. We test sensitivity to supply chain disruptions using GDP, mining, and refining shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, showing the results translate onto disruption effects. ![]() Increasing China’s refined copper imports reverses this trend, decreasing CO 2e emissions in China (up to 180 Mt by 2040) and globally (up to 20 Mt). We demonstrate that the economic changes associated with China’s solid waste import ban increase primary refining within China, offsetting the environmental benefits of decreased copper scrap refining and generating a cumulative increase in CO 2-equivalent emissions of up to 13 Mt by 2040. Here we use econometric time series analysis, inventory-driven price formation, dynamic material flow analysis, and life cycle assessment to model each copper supply chain actor’s response to China’s solid waste import ban and the COVID-19 pandemic. Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of supply chain disruptions and large-scale economic crises, also prompting environmentally protective local policies. ![]()
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